NVIDIA is now the world's most valuable company, worth $4.5 trillion. Its value has exploded thanks to the rise of artificial intelligence (AI). Before ChatGPT launched in 2022, NVIDIA was worth around $400 billion. Since then, it has grown by more than $4 trillion, as if it had absorbed the entirety of Microsoft and Apple as they were valued at the time.
This growth is linked to sales of advanced AI chips. NVIDIA dominates the market and supplies chips to companies such as OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Anthropic, and others. But it now faces a threat: potential restrictions on sales to China. A debate is underway in the US over whether these chips should be sold to authoritarian countries, given the risk of undermining American dominance in AI. NVIDIA opposes the restrictions because it generates billions of dollars in annual revenue from China. For example, its latest annual report lists $17 billion in revenue from China, including Hong Kong.
The article's author, Steven Adler, a former safety researcher at OpenAI, describes how fear of NVIDIA is influencing this debate. He spoke with many sources and collected examples of people being afraid to speak openly.
Fear Among Researchers
In the US, nonprofit research organizations such as CSIS and the Foundation for American Innovation conduct research on export controls. These organizations study how to prevent chips from being smuggled into China and how the Chinese circumvent restrictions.
But many researchers are afraid of NVIDIA. In 2023, The New York Times wrote about Gregory Allen of CSIS, who supports restrictions on sales to China. NVIDIA allegedly tried to "get rid of him" by contacting his boss. Allen's supervisor did not fire him, but another researcher described the incident as "the tip of the iceberg."
Samuel Hammond, chief economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, publicly said that after he criticized NVIDIA, the company contacted his superiors to "complain or worse." Oren Cass of American Compass, who wrote an article for The Washington Post in August 2024 about the importance of restrictions, then became the target of a suspicious article on Fox News. It accused him of ties to China because of sponsors such as Google and BlackRock, as well as a board member connected to Peking University. Cass suggested that it may have been a "hit piece" from NVIDIA. Other experts, including Michael Sobolik, Eric Sayers, and Matthew Yglesias, also described the article as suspicious.
Another case involved Janet Egan of CNAS, who wrote in September 2024 that selling chips to China would not "keep it dependent" on the US because companies such as Anthropic and Google had already switched to other chips. A week later, Politico wrote about her "conflicts of interest" due to CNAS's ties to Anthropic, but failed to mention that NVIDIA also funds CNAS.
These cases are creating an atmosphere of fear. Researchers avoid topics that might anger NVIDIA or work only with bosses who will support them.
NVIDIA's Influence on Major AI Companies
NVIDIA has enormous power because demand for its chips exceeds supply. It decides who receives chips first. Even large companies such as Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are afraid of angering it.
The Information reports that Google and Amazon give NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang advance notice of their competing products to avoid disappointing him. Microsoft reportedly faced pressure to buy special NVIDIA servers or risk receiving chips later—a decision that had to be made by CEO Satya Nadella himself.
AI companies such as OpenAI depend on NVIDIA. In March 2024, OpenAI supported restrictions on sales to China, but it has since fallen silent. Steven Adler heard from sources that companies are remaining silent out of fear of retaliation. Only Anthropic openly supports the restrictions because it uses chips from multiple suppliers and does not have a large cloud business.
NVIDIA recently invested up to $100 billion (about CZK 2.3 trillion) in OpenAI, equivalent to 20% of OpenAI's value. This could influence their positions. Miles Brundage, a former OpenAI advisor, fears that it will weaken OpenAI's policy independence.
Where Do We Go from Here?
NVIDIA's influence is hindering open debate on key issues such as national security. Steven Adler hopes that NVIDIA will address the issue and allay concerns. It is important to ask whether NVIDIA pressures companies to adopt certain positions or why Google and Amazon are afraid.
